Behind the Numbers: Who has the best chance of sweeping the Western Swing?
As the dust settles in the Mile-High City, and racers gear up for the short trek to Sonoma, let’s look at one of the toughest feats in NHRA drag racing: sweeping the Western Swing. Only seven drivers have done it between the three professional classes who participate in all three races (Pro Stock Motorcycle doesn’t race in Seattle, knocking them out of contention), making it an elusive achievement.
Antron Brown and Tony Schumacher are the most recent racers to grab the broom by the handle, and they did it in back-to back-years. Brown swept the swing in 2009, while Schumacher did it in 2008. The back-to-back reigning Top Fuel champ can do it again in 2017, and looks capable of doing it again with three Wallys to his name this season.
Before the pilot of the Matco Tools dragster took home the broom, you have to go back to 2004 to find the most recent sweeper. That was when KB Racing driver Greg Anderson became the only Pro Stock contestant to grab all three Wallys in a row. John Force is the only Funny Car pilot to sweep the Western Swing, and he did way back in 1994.
There have been close calls in recent years. Force won in Denver and Sonoma in 2016, setting up a little drama entering Seattle. It was short lived on race day. Force lost to Tommy Johnson Jr. in the first round, ending any hope of seeing our first sweep of the swing since 2009. Jack Beckman also entered Seattle with a chance of sweeping the swing in 2015.
Of the 84 winners of the first race of the first 18 years of the Western Swing (Denver in all but one year, 2010, when the sequence was Seattle-Sonoma-Denver), just 16 have gone on to win the second race. That’s 21.4 percent of the initial crop of winners entering race No. 3 of the Western Swing with a chance of completing the sweep.
For those not mathematically inclined, only 8.3 percent of drivers who grabbed that opening Western Swing Wally completed the sweep. That’s math the following three drivers are looking to erase. Brown boasts experience, while Robert Hight looks to have turned a corner, and Drew Skillman has all the momentum in the world on his side. Let’s size up their chances of sweeping the Swing.
Antron Brown
Brown enters the Swing with history firmly on his side. Not only is he the only driver of the three to have swept the Western Swing before, he’s won three in a row on three separate occasions. Mix that in with being the back-to-back defending champ, and you’ve got a recipe for success. Oh, and Brown has six Wallys between Seattle and Sonoma, the final two destinations on the Swing. Convinced he’s got a shot yet?
He won in Seattle in 2016 and Sonoma in 2015, so perhaps 2017 is the year he’s able to do both together. The last time he did that? You guessed it: 2009, the year he swept the Swing. Standing in his way is one of the most competitive Top Fuel classes in recent memory. Beyond heavy hitters like Steve Torrence and teammate Leah Pritchett are tricky underdogs like Terry McMillen and Scott Palmer. If there’s a reason to bet against Brown, it’s the depth of the Top Fuel class.
Robert Hight
John Force Racing President Robert Hight won his first race since the 2016 Houston contest when he took down Tommy Johnson Jr. at the Mopar Mile-High NHRA Nationals. Is Hight back in business? He certainly thinks so, and the results leading up to that win (save for a first-round exit to Jim Campbell in Chicago) back that up. He came close to his first win in Norwalk and has qualified very well all season.
He also has experience putting together solid streaks. Hight has won three races in a row twice, in 2014 and 2010, and won four in a row in 2012. With that said, he hasn’t had much success on the Western Swing in the past: his only win came in Sonoma in 2008, and he reached the final in Seattle in 2005.
Drew Skillman
Let’s start with what Drew Skillman hasn’t done: He’s never won three races in a row, never won a race on the Western Swing, and never won a championship. He also might have the best chance of the three eligible drivers to sweep the Swing. How do I figure? To start, check out the recent results of the car, and the driver, heading into the second race of the Western Swing. How does winning eight rounds in a row sound?
The results speak for themselves, but the numbers behind Mr. Consistent are even louder. The package times (reaction time + elapsed time) in the elimination rounds in Skillman’s Chicago victory are scary consistent. He went from 6.647 in the first round to 6.657 in the second to a 6.634 against points leader Bo Butner in the semi’s before slowing up just a hair to a 6.640 against former world champion Erica Enders in the final.
That probably sounds familiar to fans who tuned into the Mile-High Nationals in Denver. His lights were a little off at Bandimere Speedway (.293 vs. a .2 average over four sessions at Route 66 Raceway), but the car reminded Skillman of his bracket racing days. Check out the package times from the first session onward: 6.989, 6.976, 6.967, 6.937. That last number is just mean against Butner in the final. If Skillman continues to improve across the Swing, watch out.